{"id":5016,"date":"2021-08-11T12:04:09","date_gmt":"2021-08-11T10:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/?p=5016"},"modified":"2021-08-11T17:46:53","modified_gmt":"2021-08-11T15:46:53","slug":"proc-je-rozdil-v-prumerne-teplote-v-radu-desetin-stupne-ci-jednotek-stupnu-dulezity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/2021\/08\/11\/proc-je-rozdil-v-prumerne-teplote-v-radu-desetin-stupne-ci-jednotek-stupnu-dulezity\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d je rozd\u00edl v pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teplot\u011b v \u0159\u00e1du desetin stupn\u011b \u010di jednotek stup\u0148\u016f d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>\u010casto \u010dteme o tom, \u017ee byla pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota o n\u011bkolik stup\u0148\u016f vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u010di \u017ee se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplota zv\u00fd\u0161ila o 1 stupe\u0148 Celsia. Na prvn\u00ed pohled to m\u016f\u017ee p\u016fsobit jako zcela zanedbateln\u00fd rozd\u00edl. Pro\u010d je ale takov\u00e1to zm\u011bna velmi podstatn\u00e1?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Na prvn\u00ed pohled \u010dlov\u011bku opravdu m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ipadnout, \u017ee rozd\u00edl je zanedbateln\u00fd \u2013 pravdou je, \u017ee rozd\u00edl jednoho stupn\u011b je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 pod rozli\u0161ovac\u00ed schopnost lidsk\u00e9ho organismu a jestli je 15 nebo 16 \u00b0C v\u00a0podstat\u011b nelze poznat.<\/p>\n<p>Ve skute\u010dnosti je v\u0161ak <strong>cel\u00e1 problematika mnohem slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/strong>. V\u00a0tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku si uk\u00e1\u017eeme, \u017ee <strong>statistika je n\u011bkdy velmi zr\u00e1dn\u00e1<\/strong>, proto\u017ee m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u0161patn\u011b interpretov\u00e1na a v\u00e9st k\u00a0miln\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm. Uk\u00e1\u017eeme si to pr\u00e1v\u011b na p\u0159\u00edkladu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Jak je to tedy s\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brnou teplotou? Nejprve si \u0159ekn\u011bme, \u017ee <strong>rozlo\u017een\u00ed teplot v\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9m hledisku p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b odpov\u00edd\u00e1 norm\u00e1ln\u00edmu rozlo\u017een\u00ed<\/strong>, tzv. Gaussov\u00e9 k\u0159ivce, kter\u00e1 je charakterizov\u00e1na pr\u016fm\u011brem a variabilitou datov\u00e9ho souboru. <strong>Hodnoty okolo pr\u016fm\u011bru se vyskytuj\u00ed nej\u010dast\u011bji, hodnoty extr\u00e9mn\u00ed nejm\u00e9n\u011b \u010dasto.<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5017\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5017\" style=\"width: 638px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-5017\" src=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"638\" height=\"319\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss.png 1920w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss-1024x512.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss-1536x768.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 638px) 100vw, 638px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5017\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed rozlo\u017een\u00ed. Zdroj: Wikipedia<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Osa X vyjad\u0159uje vzd\u00e1lenost od pr\u016fm\u011bru ve sm\u011brodatn\u00fdch odchylk\u00e1ch. Osa Y reprezentuje \u010detnost zastoupen\u00ed. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 68 % hodnot se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v intervalu jedn\u00e9 sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky od pr\u016fm\u011bru, okolo 95 % hodnot v intervalu dvou sm\u011brodatn\u00fdch odchylek (konkr\u00e9tn\u011b 1,96n\u00e1sobek) a p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 99,7 % hodnot v intervalu 3 sm\u011brodatn\u00fdch odchylek okolo pr\u016fm\u011bru.<\/p>\n<p>Nyn\u00ed se vra\u0165me ke konceptu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zvy\u0161uje se pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota a z\u00e1rove\u0148 je pozorov\u00e1n n\u00e1r\u016fst variability pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty. V praxi to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee pokud vyneseme k\u0159ivku norm\u00e1ln\u00edho rozlo\u017een\u00ed tak, \u017ee na ose X budeme m\u00edt teploty, pak se k\u0159ivka posune m\u00edrn\u011b \u201edoprava\u201c (pr\u016fm\u011br se posune k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m na ose X). Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed variability se na k\u0159ivce norm\u00e1ln\u00edho rozlo\u017een\u00ed projev\u00ed tak, \u017ee dojde k jej\u00edmu zplo\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. Naopak hodnoty d\u00e1le od pr\u016fm\u011bru budou pozorov\u00e1ny \u010dast\u011bji (budou m\u00edt vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed frekvenci zastoupen\u00ed, tedy vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnotu na ose Y).<\/p>\n<p>V\u0161e si nyn\u00ed uk\u00e1\u017eeme graficky. Nejprve se pod\u00edvejme, jak vypad\u00e1 <strong>posun pr\u016fm\u011bru k\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m<\/strong> za p\u0159edpokladu zachov\u00e1n\u00ed stejn\u00e9 variability, vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fd \u010dervenou k\u0159ivkou.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5018\" src=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss1-300x94.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"440\" height=\"138\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss1-300x94.png 300w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss1-768x240.png 768w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss1.png 945w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 440px) 100vw, 440px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Nyn\u00ed se pod\u00edvejme na jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad, kdy pr\u016fm\u011br z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 shodn\u00fd, ale <strong>zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed se variabilita<\/strong>, kdy zm\u011bna je op\u011bt vyj\u00e1d\u0159ena \u010dervenou k\u0159ivkou.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5018\" src=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss2-300x94.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"440\" height=\"138\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>V\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vid\u00edme, \u017ee st\u0159ed k\u0159ivky (pr\u016fm\u011br) z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 na shodn\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b, ale k\u0159ivka je plo\u0161\u0161\u00ed, tak\u017ee je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed zastoupen\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch hodnot.<\/p>\n<p>Na z\u00e1v\u011br si uka\u017eme, jak vypad\u00e1 k\u0159ivka v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se <strong>zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br i variabilita dat<\/strong>, tedy kombinace obou p\u0159edchoz\u00edch k\u0159ivek.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5021 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss4-300x94.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"440\" height=\"138\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss4-300x94.png 300w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss4-768x240.png 768w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss4.png 945w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 440px) 100vw, 440px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Z\u00a0\u010detnosti zastoupen\u00ed je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee <strong>drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina hodnot se bude v\u00a0obou rozlo\u017een\u00edch p\u0159ekr\u00fdvat<\/strong> (plocha n\u00e1le\u017e\u00edc\u00ed ob\u011bma k\u0159ivk\u00e1m). <strong>D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 jsou v\u0161ak v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b oba konce k\u0159ivky<\/strong>, tedy m\u00edsto, kde se k\u0159ivka p\u0159ibli\u017euje ose X. Toto m\u00edsto si nyn\u00ed uk\u00e1\u017eeme p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00e9, a to u vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnot.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss5.bmp\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5022 \" src=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss5.bmp\" alt=\"\" width=\"647\" height=\"352\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss5.bmp 1065w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss5-300x163.bmp 300w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss5-1024x557.bmp 1024w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss5-768x418.bmp 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>V k\u0159ivce jsou zv\u00fdrazn\u011bny dv\u011b plochy. <strong>Sv\u011btle r\u016f\u017eovou je zv\u00fdrazn\u011bno pole velmi vysok\u00fdch teplot<\/strong>. Z tohoto zobrazen\u00ed je ji\u017e dob\u0159e patrn\u00e9, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b na konc\u00edch k\u0159ivky doch\u00e1z\u00ed k nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm rozd\u00edl\u016fm. Plocha (\u00fam\u011brn\u00e1 \u010detnosti) pod \u010dervenou k\u0159ivkou je velmi v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e plocha pod \u010dernou k\u0159ivkou \u2013 jin\u00fdmi slovy, <strong>\u010detnost v\u00fdskytu velmi vysok\u00fdch teplot je i p\u0159i mal\u00e9m posunu a\u017e n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobn\u00fd.<\/strong> D\u00e1le je zde je\u0161t\u011b vyzna\u010dena tmav\u0161\u00edm odst\u00ednem r\u016f\u017eov\u00e9 plocha, <strong>velmi extr\u00e9mn\u00edch hodnot<\/strong>. U \u010dern\u00e9 k\u0159ivky je pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdskytu tak extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159i re\u00e1ln\u00e9m po\u010dtu hodnot (nap\u0159. dn\u00ed) je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nere\u00e1ln\u00e9, aby se tato hodnota vyskytla. U \u010derven\u00e9 k\u0159ivky to sice bude jen v naprosto v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech, ale tato hodnota ji\u017e je <strong>re\u00e1ln\u00e1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Pokud se tedy vr\u00e1t\u00edme k\u00a0na\u0161emu teplotn\u00edmu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, posun pr\u016fm\u011bru i o velmi malou hodnotu znamen\u00e1 p\u0159i norm\u00e1ln\u00edm rozlo\u017een\u00ed, \u017ee se <strong>mohou vyskytovat extr\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 se do t\u00e9 doby neobjevovaly.<\/strong> V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se pr\u016fm\u011br zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, extr\u00e9my se objev\u00ed na stran\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnot, naopak extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 hodnoty, pokud se nezm\u011bn\u00ed variabilita, se neprojev\u00ed. <strong>Pokud se ale s pr\u016fm\u011brem zm\u011bn\u00ed i variabilita<\/strong> (co\u017e v sou\u010dasnosti u teploty vzduchu sledujeme), potom konec rozd\u011blen\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee z\u016fstat na p\u016fvodn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b (viz uk\u00e1zan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad v\u00fd\u0161e) a <strong>n\u00edzk\u00e9 extr\u00e9my se tak budou st\u00e1le vyskytovat<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00a0postupuj\u00edc\u00ed klimatickou zm\u011bnou tedy lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat nap\u0159\u00edklad <strong>vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdskytu vln veder<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 sice st\u00e1le mohou b\u00fdt relativn\u011b v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9, ale p\u0159esto \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a hlavn\u011b, jak ukazuje k\u0159ivka v\u00fd\u0161e, mohou b\u00fdt <strong>extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/strong>, ne\u017e na co jsme zvykl\u00ed (u\u017e jenom t\u00edm, \u017ee budou nap\u0159. trvat d\u00e9le). V praxi pak i <strong>mal\u00fd posun sm\u011brem k\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed extremit\u011b m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 dopady<\/strong>. Pro ilustraci tohoto konceptu si m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159edstavit nap\u0159\u00edklad stav hladiny v \u0159ece. Pokud by se povode\u0148 vyskytla v p\u016fvodn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i v pr\u016fm\u011bru jeden den za deset let a v nov\u00e9m jeden den za t\u0159i roky, pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdskytu by byla rovna p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 0,00027 respektive 0,00091. V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech se jedn\u00e1 o velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo a na k\u0159ivce by se nach\u00e1zelo velmi bl\u00edzko ose X. P\u0159esto je v praxi obrovsk\u00fd rozd\u00edl, zda se povode\u0148 vyskytne jednou za t\u0159i roky \u010di jednou za deset let. Nav\u00edc by byla tato povode\u0148 sice jen o m\u00e1lo, ale p\u0159esto extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. V tomto p\u0159irovn\u00e1n\u00ed si lze dob\u0159e p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee pokud nap\u0159\u00edklad je koryto hlubok\u00e9 270 cm, je rozd\u00edl v hladin\u011b 268 cm a 271 cm sice velmi mal\u00fd, ale dopady tohoto rozd\u00edlu naprosto z\u00e1sadn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed teploty m\u00e1 dopady na \u0159adu dal\u0161\u00edch faktor\u016f<\/strong>, v\u010detn\u011b nap\u0159\u00edklad t\u00e1n\u00ed ledovc\u016f a s t\u00edm spojen\u00e9ho zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny oce\u00e1n\u016f, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed intenzity v\u00fdparu, ke zm\u011bn\u00e1m v mo\u0159sk\u00e9m proud\u011bn\u00ed a kone\u010dn\u00e9 dopady se tak mohou projevovat extr\u00e9mn\u011b r\u016fznorod\u011b. Nezanedbateln\u00fdm faktem je pak i mo\u017enost v\u00fdskytu extr\u00e9m\u016f v\u00a0tzv. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-020-0060-z\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sdru\u017een\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch ud\u00e1lostech<\/a> (compound events), kdy vede kombinace v\u00edce fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch proces\u016f (klimatick\u00fdch faktor\u016f) k ur\u010dit\u00e9mu v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu dopadu. Tato problematika je v\u0161ak ji\u017e v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad r\u00e1mec tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n<p><strong>V\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b se extr\u00e9my po\u010das\u00ed vyskytuj\u00ed \u010dast\u011bji a mohou b\u00fdt extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/strong> <strong>Nelze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee by v\u0161echny tyto extr\u00e9my \u010di jejich intenzita ve 100% souvisely s dopady zm\u011bny klimatu a lidskou \u010dinnost\u00ed<\/strong> (i <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/downloads\/report\/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">nov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va IPCC<\/a> n\u00e1m v tomto ned\u00e1v\u00e1 naprostou jistotu, kdy\u017e konstatuje, \u017ee \u201e<em>The <strong>likely <\/strong>range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase\u2026<\/em>\u201c, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 \u017ee s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 66 a\u017e 100 % \u010dlov\u011bk zp\u016fsobil 0,8 a\u017e 1,3 \u00b0C oteplen\u00ed od r. 1850). <strong>Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b stanovit<\/strong>, co je a co nen\u00ed vlivem glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, je <strong>v praxi nemo\u017en\u00e9<\/strong>. P\u0159esto je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u00e9, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto zm\u011bn jsou d\u00e1ny pr\u00e1v\u011b zm\u011bnou klimatu, a jak jsme si uk\u00e1zali, m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt pr\u00e1v\u011b tou na prvn\u00ed pohled zanedbatelnou zm\u011bnou o p\u00e1r desetinek stupn\u011b v celkov\u00e9m pr\u016fm\u011bru.<\/p>\n<p>Na z\u00e1v\u011br si je\u0161t\u011b uka\u017eme, \u017ee p\u0159edpoklady ze kter\u00fdch vych\u00e1zela anal\u00fdza v\u00fd\u0161e, jsou skute\u010dn\u011b pravdiv\u00e9. Uk\u00e1zat si to m\u016f\u017eeme <strong>na p\u0159\u00edkladu stanice Brno-Tu\u0159any<\/strong>. Toto ov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch denn\u00edch teplot za 60let\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132020. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to anal\u00fdzy bylo toto obdob\u00ed rozd\u011bleno na dv\u011b t\u0159icetilet\u00e1, tedy 1961\u20131990 a 1991\u20132020.<\/p>\n<p>Prvn\u00ed graf ukazuje <strong>\u010detnost v\u00fdskytu konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 denn\u00ed teploty b\u011bhem obou t\u0159icetilet\u00fdch obdob\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165<\/strong>. Na ose Y je vynesena pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 denn\u00ed teplota v\u00a0kroku 0,1\u00a0\u00b0C. Na ose Y je vyj\u00e1d\u0159en po\u010det v\u00fdskytu t\u00e9to pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 denn\u00ed teploty v\u00a0dan\u00e9m obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5023\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5023\" style=\"width: 727px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-5023\" src=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"727\" height=\"432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss6.png 1494w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss6-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss6-1024x608.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss6-768x456.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 727px) 100vw, 727px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5023\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Rozlo\u017een\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch denn\u00edch teplot vzduchu ze stanice Brno-Tu\u0159any 1961 a\u017e 2020. Zdroj: \u010cesk\u00fd hydrometeorologick\u00fd \u00fastav<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Na grafu si m\u016f\u017eeme pov\u0161imnout n\u011bkolika d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch fakt\u016f. T\u00edm prvn\u00edm je, \u017ee <strong>nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 denn\u00ed teploty<\/strong> byly zaznamen\u00e1ny sp\u00ed\u0161e v prvn\u00edm t\u0159icetilet\u00e9m obdob\u00ed (s v\u00fdjimkou 2-3 nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edch hodnot, <strong>mo\u017enost jejich v\u00fdskytu je v nov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b \u010detn\u00e1, ale nen\u00ed vylou\u010den\u00e1<\/strong>), naopak <strong>nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed denn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011bry tvo\u0159\u00ed v\u00fdhradn\u011b<\/strong> \u010derven\u00e9 body \u2013 <strong>obdob\u00ed 1991\u20132020<\/strong>. T\u00edmto se n\u00e1m potvrzuje, \u017ee <strong>vysok\u00e9 extr\u00e9mn\u00ed hodnoty jsou u obou rozli\u0161en\u00ed odli\u0161n\u00e9 a vyskytuj\u00ed se pouze v nov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm t\u0159icetilet\u00ed 1991-2020<\/strong> \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kv\u016fli faktu, \u017ee se n\u00e1m pr\u016fm\u011br posunul sm\u011brem k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m, takov\u00e9to hodnoty v p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00e9m t\u0159icetilet\u00ed pozorov\u00e1ny nebyly. <strong>Extr\u00e9my v podob\u011b velmi n\u00edzk\u00fdch teplot jsou sice m\u00e9n\u011b \u010detn\u00e9, ale nelze je \u00fapln\u011b vylou\u010dit<\/strong>, proto\u017ee se zm\u011bnou variability n\u00e1m rozd\u011blen\u00ed hodnot zasahuje i do t\u00e9to oblasti n\u00edzk\u00fdch hodnot.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00e1le jsme si \u0159ekli, \u017ee se zvy\u0161uje variabilita hodnot. Pokud si spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me aritmetick\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br obou soubor\u016f dat a jeho sm\u011brodatnou odchylku, m\u016f\u017eeme z obou t\u0159icetilet\u00ed zkonstruovat k\u0159ivku norm\u00e1ln\u00edho rozlo\u017een\u00ed. Ta pak vypad\u00e1 n\u00e1sledovn\u011b.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5024\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5024\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss7.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-5024 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss7-1024x447.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss7-1024x447.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss7-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss7-768x335.png 768w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gauss7.png 1459w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5024\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Rozlo\u017een\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch denn\u00edch teplot vzduchu ze stanice Brno-Tu\u0159any 1961 a\u017e 2020. Zdroj: \u010cesk\u00fd hydrometeorologick\u00fd \u00fastav<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Z grafu je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee na\u0161e p\u0159edpoklady se potvrzuj\u00ed \u2013 \u010derven\u00e1 k\u0159ivka je posunuta sm\u011brem doprava (zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011bru) a z\u00e1rove\u0148 je m\u00edrn\u011b plo\u0161\u0161\u00ed (vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed variabilita dat). V tomto konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b do\u0161lo ke zm\u011bn\u011b pr\u016fm\u011bru z 8,7 \u00b0C na 10,0 \u00b0C, tedy o \u201epouh\u00e9\u201c 1,3 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n<p>Jak se v\u0161ak pokusil tento \u010dl\u00e1nek vysv\u011btlit statisticky a na n\u00e1zorn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpadu z praxe, i <strong>velmi mal\u00fd rozd\u00edl m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt velmi patrn\u00e9 dopady<\/strong>. <strong>Extr\u00e9my toti\u017e mohou m\u00edt zcela z\u00e1sadn\u00ed dopady, proto i jejich velmi mal\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdskytu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1. Uk\u00e1zali jsme si, \u017ee zm\u011bna v pr\u016fm\u011bru a variabilit\u011b dat pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty vzduchu vede k vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti v\u00fdskytu velmi vysok\u00fdch teplot a v\u00fdskytu teplot vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch ne\u017e jak\u00e9 byly pozorov\u00e1ny v minulosti. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak vzhledem ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed variability a zplo\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed rozlo\u017een\u00ed je situace u extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch hodnot odli\u0161n\u00e1 &#8211; st\u00e1le jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 hodnoty pozorovateln\u00e9 v minulosti re\u00e1ln\u00e9, by\u0165 s men\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u010casto \u010dteme o tom, \u017ee byla pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota o n\u011bkolik stup\u0148\u016f vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u010di \u017ee se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplota zv\u00fd\u0161ila o 1 stupe\u0148 Celsia. Na prvn\u00ed pohled to m\u016f\u017ee p\u016fsobit jako zcela zanedbateln\u00fd rozd\u00edl. Pro\u010d je ale takov\u00e1to zm\u011bna velmi podstatn\u00e1? Na prvn\u00ed pohled \u010dlov\u011bku opravdu m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ipadnout, \u017ee rozd\u00edl je zanedbateln\u00fd \u2013 pravdou je, \u017ee rozd\u00edl [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3],"tags":[92,263,80,118],"coauthors":[19],"class_list":["post-5016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pocasi","tag-klima","tag-oteplovani","tag-statistika","tag-teplota","entry","has-media"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/gdgssg.jpg","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pa1A1I-1iU","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5016"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5016\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5033,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5016\/revisions\/5033"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5016"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=5016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}