{"id":1630,"date":"2018-12-02T10:53:43","date_gmt":"2018-12-02T09:53:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/?p=1630"},"modified":"2018-12-02T10:55:57","modified_gmt":"2018-12-02T09:55:57","slug":"ceka-pacifik-dalsi-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/2018\/12\/02\/ceka-pacifik-dalsi-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cek\u00e1 Pacifik dal\u0161\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Sv\u011btov\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 organizace (WMO) vydala v\u00fdstrahu, \u017ee se se 75-80% pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 3 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v Pacifiku rozvine jev El Ni\u00f1o.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Co p\u0159esn\u011b stoj\u00ed za v\u00fdrazem El Ni\u00f1o? Jedn\u00e1 se o slo\u017eit\u00e9 fluktuace teploty oce\u00e1nu a atmosf\u00e9ry ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edm a centr\u00e1ln\u00edm rovn\u00edkov\u00e9m Tich\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu. Jedn\u00e1 se o jev trvaj\u00edc\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru 9 a\u017e 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, m\u016f\u017ee v\u0161ak v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b trvat i n\u011bkolik let. Objevuje se v nepravideln\u00fdch intervalech, v\u011bt\u0161inou je to jednou za dva a\u017e sedm let (pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b jednou za 5 let). Slovo <em>El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> znamen\u00e1 ve \u0161pan\u011bl\u0161tin\u011b doslova &#8222;<em>chlape\u010dek<\/em>&#8222;.<\/p>\n<p>Poprv\u00e9 byl tento jev pops\u00e1n ryb\u00e1\u0159i u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky v 17. stolet\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed pozorovali neb\u00fdvale vysok\u00e9 teploty vody Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu. Jedn\u00e1 se o rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 interakce mezi oce\u00e1nem a atmosf\u00e9rou spojen\u00e9 s pravideln\u00fdm oteplov\u00e1n\u00edm teploty vody nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d centr\u00e1ln\u00edm a v\u00fdchodo-centr\u00e1ln\u00edm rovn\u00edkov\u00fdm Tich\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem. Jak\u00e9 konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed dopady m\u00e1 tento jev? Typick\u00e9 jsou to vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty v z\u00e1padn\u00ed a st\u0159edn\u00ed Kanad\u011b a z\u00e1padn\u00edch a severn\u00edch oblastech Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f americk\u00fdch. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad na Florid\u011b, je pak typick\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek, naopak v jin\u00fdch oblastech jako nap\u0159\u00edklad Ohio \u010di v severoz\u00e1padn\u00edch oblastech Pacifiku je mno\u017estv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o jev objevuj\u00edc\u00ed se pravideln\u011b v nepravideln\u00fdch intervalech ji\u017e tis\u00edce let. Od roku 1900 se objevil minim\u00e1ln\u011b 30\u00d7, nejsiln\u011bji tomu bylo v letech 1982-1983, 1997-1998 a 2014-2016.<\/p>\n<p>Za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed pod\u00e9l rovn\u00edku vanouc\u00ed v\u00fdchodn\u00ed pas\u00e1ty posouvaj\u00ed vodu od jihoamerick\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed sm\u011brem k Austr\u00e1lii. P\u0159i pohybu doch\u00e1z\u00ed d\u00edky slune\u010dn\u00edmu z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed k postupn\u00e9mu oh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vody. U pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky je naopak voda chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Pokud dojde k oslaben\u00ed v\u00fdchodn\u00edch pas\u00e1t\u016f, nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed k posunu vody v tak vysok\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e a otepluje se tedy voda u jihoamerick\u00fdch b\u0159eh\u016f a naopak ochlazuje se z\u00e1padn\u00ed Tich\u00fd oce\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<div class=\"su-youtube su-u-responsive-media-yes\"><iframe width=\"600\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WPA-KpldDVc?\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen allow=\"autoplay; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture\" title=\"\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>Vysv\u011btlen\u00ed jevu El Ni\u00f1o pomoc\u00ed animace [v angli\u010dtin\u011b]<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1632\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1632\" style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/2018\/12\/02\/ceka-pacifik-dalsi-el-nino\/el_nino_year-46889\/#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1632\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1632 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/el_nino_year-46889.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"514\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/el_nino_year-46889.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/el_nino_year-46889-292x300.jpg 292w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1632\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">Zdroj: NOAA<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Posledn\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o skon\u010dilo v roce 2016 a bylo spojen\u00e9 s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/environment\/great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-marine-heatwave-australia-climate-change-a8309476.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edm blednut\u00edm kor\u00e1l\u016f Velk\u00e9ho bari\u00e9rov\u00e9ho \u00fatesu<\/a>, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho kor\u00e1lov\u00e9ho \u00fatesu sv\u011bta le\u017e\u00edc\u00edho pobl\u00ed\u017e pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed severn\u00ed Austr\u00e1lie. Podle odhad\u016f WMO by p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 brzk\u00e9 opakov\u00e1n\u00ed jevu El Ni\u00f1o nem\u011blo m\u00edt tak v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 dopady, av\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edstavovat ur\u010dit\u00e9 riziko pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 oblasti. &#8222;Nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fd jev El Ni\u00f1o by byl tak siln\u00fd, jako ten v letech 2015-2016, kter\u00fd byl spojen\u00fd se suchem, z\u00e1plavami a blednut\u00edm kor\u00e1lu v r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech sv\u011bta&#8220;, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Maxx Dilley, \u0159editel WMO sekce pro P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f a adaptaci klimatu. D\u00e1le v\u0161ak dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee &#8222;&#8230;i p\u0159esto m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovlivnit sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fd \u00fahrn a teploty v mnoha regionech, s v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi dopady na zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a dostupnost vody a zdrav\u00ed. Tyto d\u016fsledky se nav\u00edc m\u016f\u017eou spojit s dlouhodobou klimatickou zm\u011bnou a vyvolat tak v roce 2019 vysok\u00e9 teploty glob\u00e1ln\u011b.&#8220; Teploty oce\u00e1nu ji\u017e v sou\u010dasnosti dos\u00e1hly \u00farovn\u011b klasifikovan\u00e9 jako slab\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o a odborn\u00edci z USA i Austr\u00e1lie varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed vysokou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edho plnohodnotn\u00e9ho jevu El Ni\u00f1o. Podle nejextr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed by se podle WMO mohly teploty oce\u00e1nu zv\u00fd\u0161it v pr\u016fm\u011bru a\u017e o 1,2\u00b0C. Britsk\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 organizace Met Office nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 vliv El Ni\u00f1o na zimu ve Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed &#8211; &#8222;El Ni\u00f1o m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st v\u00edce sr\u00e1\u017eek a v\u011btrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b zimy a ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed teploty a sucho v polovin\u011b druh\u00e9, jedn\u00e1 se v\u0161ak pouze o jeden z faktor\u016f ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch pr\u016fb\u011bh zimy a nelze proto s jistotou \u0159\u00edci, jak\u00e1 zima nakonec bude&#8220;, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Adam Scaife, profesor z Met Office. Shodn\u011b s WMO \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee by tento jev mohl ovlivnit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brnou teplotu v roce 2019 &#8211; tak, jako tomu bylo v roce 2016, kter\u00fd se \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b i d\u00edky El Ni\u00f1o stal zat\u00edm nejteplej\u0161\u00edm rokem v historii m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1634\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1634\" style=\"width: 620px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/2018\/12\/02\/ceka-pacifik-dalsi-el-nino\/el-nino_winter_global-impacts-southern-africa\/#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1634\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1634 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/chmibrno.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/el-nino_winter_global-impacts-southern-africa.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"239\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/el-nino_winter_global-impacts-southern-africa.jpg 620w, https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/el-nino_winter_global-impacts-southern-africa-300x116.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1634\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">Mo\u017en\u00e9 dopady jevu El Ni\u00f1o v obdob\u00ed prosince a\u017e \u00fanora. Oran\u017eov\u00e1 &#8211; oteplen\u00ed, zelen\u00e1 &#8211; vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eky, sv\u011btle hn\u011bd\u00e1 &#8211; sucho, tmav\u011b hn\u011bd\u011b &#8211; teplo a sucho, tmav\u011b modr\u00e1 &#8211; chladno a vlhko, sv\u011btle zeln\u011b &#8211; teplo a vlhko. Zdroj: NOAA<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Na z\u00e1v\u011br je nutn\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee nen\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o d\u016fsledkem glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, ale sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00e9ho cyklu Zem\u011b. Studie zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se touto t\u00e9matikou se v\u0161ak shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee jeho dopady jsou siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v d\u016fsledku klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>Tituln\u00ed obr\u00e1zek: NASA<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sv\u011btov\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 organizace (WMO) vydala v\u00fdstrahu, \u017ee se se 75-80% pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 3 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v Pacifiku rozvine jev El Ni\u00f1o.\u00a0 Co p\u0159esn\u011b stoj\u00ed za v\u00fdrazem El Ni\u00f1o? Jedn\u00e1 se o slo\u017eit\u00e9 fluktuace teploty oce\u00e1nu a atmosf\u00e9ry ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edm a centr\u00e1ln\u00edm rovn\u00edkov\u00e9m Tich\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu. Jedn\u00e1 se o jev trvaj\u00edc\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru 9 a\u017e 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1635,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3],"tags":[116,92],"coauthors":[19],"class_list":["post-1630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pocasi","tag-el-nino","tag-klima","entry","has-media"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/terra-3d-el-nino.jpg","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pa1A1I-qi","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1630"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1630\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1641,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1630\/revisions\/1641"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1630"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enviblog.cz\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=1630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}